Let's Fight!
Egypt is a land of softly whispered tension between several different groups waiting to spontaneously combust. Lets meet the combatants…
The Young Moderates- A group between the ages of 16 and 35 who desire a moderate, secular democracy elected by the people. Probably the smallest group in Egypt found primarily on blogs. Enemy- The Islamic Extremists
The Islamic Extremists- Consisting of all ages and social backgrounds often oppressed by unemployment. Fueled not by their faith but by their hate for America and Israel and all of their allies whether actual or assumed (Egypt’s Christians). Their existence is largely thanks to the popularity of the Muslim Brotherhood, (a group that grew out of protest against British Occupation) Wahabism imported from Saudi Arabia, poverty and boredom. Enemy- Everyone
The Average Joe’s- Tired, oppressed and angry and indoctrinated into extremist thinking by the thousands daily. Enemy- Everyone
The Christians- Falsely recorded by the Egyptian government as 6% of the population (closer to 12%). A constant target of animosity often spoken negatively about in social circles and sometimes targeted in public. Enemy- The Islamic extremists
What do they all have in common? They all hate Mubarak. Why?
The Young Moderates- Because he silences the opposition by any means necessary, divides foreign aid among his business partners and his generals and insists on ruling until his death despite claiming to be democratically elected.
The Islamic Extremists- Because he maintains peace with Israel, is an ally to the U.S. doesn’t slaughter Christians and does not enforce Islamic law.
The Average Joe’s- For all the reasons listed above
The Christians- Because he does a crappy job of protecting them from violence and hatred. Also silencing them from speaking out about it.
So what will happen when Hosni Mubarak dies and his son Gamal assumes power? Well this might help…
Political and religious enemies + Government instability = CIVIL WAR
Does this seem familiar to anyone?
Join the Conversation
I really don’t think civil war will occur as I think Egypt’s government, which I believe is a lot smarter than people give it credit for (See Mubarak’s predictions about Iraq or Hosni’s latest comments) will not allow chaos to ensure. Gamal would be a good leader who would provide for stability. However, you are right about the different social movements. Don’t discount the overlap though. A significant amount of Christians comprise the Young Modernists and Average Joe groups as well.
Anyway, interesting insight, but I hope your powers of prediction are lacking, for Egypt’s sake.
Interesting insight DB, though I doubt civil war will ensure after Mubarak steps down or dies. First off, Egypt’s ruling government is probably the smartest in the Middle Eas as we can see through Hosni Mubarak’s predictions about Iraq or Farouk Hosni’s latest comments. They would not ensure a stable transition. If Gamal succeeds his father, which I doubt, it will usher in an era of stability and progress for Egypt, and I don’t think Egyptians are angry or energetic enough to really put up a fight against such transitions, especially if it brings in economic benefits.
Also, I’d like to add that there’s significant overlap between these different factions. A lot of Christians fall into both the “Young Moderate” and “Average Joe” camps.
Alot of people think Egyptians are so lazy from eating Falafel that they wouldnt dare revolt and go nuts. But trust me if Egypt was a kitchen the people would be a boiling pot on the stove!
Quote of the century!
A bit like Iran. Though, no other religion constitutes a major force in Iran.
Arash, what about the Atheists? After 28 years of the revolution, I suspect they have the largest numbers… and the worst government jobs.
Egyptian Sandmonkey had a great post similar to this one. His main conclusion was that as awful as the authoritative government is, most Egyptians know full well Egypt could have easily been another Libyia, Algeria, or even Sudan.
Personally, I think the future of Egypt belongs to the Muslim Brotherhood. They would easily win in a fair election.
Jordan,
I don’t think there are many Atheists in Iran. And I mean Atheist meaning someone who lives a irreligious life. The average Iran takes part in Islamic events.