Ethiopia and Somalia at War
Updated Twice
As the UIC (Union of Islamic Courts) has expanded control over the Southern Somalia after its capture of the capital of Mogadishu from warlords a peculiar thing happened, there was suddenly renewed interest in the perpetually interim government which controls a tiny portion of the country. Ethiopia is afraid of a unified Somali state because of the huge Ogaden region of its country is ethnically Somali. So they have sent troops to prop up the interim government which has neither power nor legitamacy.
They have recently made their presence there (8,000 or so troops and more recently tanks), which they long denied, official announcing that they have been “forced” into war. They claim the UIC is a terrorist organization, Ethiopia has U.S. support as an ally in the war on terror and one of Africas largest armies.
The fact however is that as early as October 24th they were claiming to be “technically at war” with the UIC.
The UIC gets support from several Arab countries (who are pressing for peace) and has invited foreign volunteers to help fight Ethiopia. It is also supported by Eritrea, which is an enemy of Ethiopia. Even as I write this Ethiopian planes bomb Somali towns and civilians flee for their lives.
Ethiopian victory is not at all certain however, the transitional capital of Baidoi is cut off and surrounded and it has very little support in Somalia, meanwhile all Ethiopian supply lines to their forces occupying Somalia must pass through the Somali populated Ogaden region, indeed the ONLF (Ogaden National Liberation Front) already is claiming to have destroyed Ethiopian military convoys headed to Somalia.
The Eritreans have also shown themselves a match for the Ethiopians, and whether if they open a Northern front the Ethiopians can achieve victory in the south without collapse in the north is questionable.
This conflict cannot merely be seens as a struggle against terrorism or even Islamism, it is the struggle of the Somalis to rebuild their national unity from within, having been abandoned from without. By what right can a foreign country that has not been attacked to relegate them back to anarchy so that it may rest easier. I’m reminded of the South African policy of destabilizing it’s African neighbors so that they cannot unite against it (as the Balkan countries once did to the Ottoman Empire), they have no such right.
The Somalis deserve a state and the Ethiopians have to come to terms with that, it looks like it may take a war to teach them that lesson, and a war they now have.
Update:
In a strange turn the Interim Government has announced closing the air and sea links (which it does not control) of Somalia, strange at least until you read of the Ethiopian bombings of airports on the pretext that they are operating illegally. This is a good article on recent war news. Essentially Islamists have been somewhat pushed back and lost a few towns to the transitional government (with heavy Ethiopian air support) and Ethiopian troops are driving deep into Somalia.
Eritrea has refrained from inervening thus far, and Islamist fighters continue to stream into Somalia.
I found another adorable Ethiopian Government quote from yesterday “No airforce involved, but we are using tanks, we do have the right to do so,” their propaganda is so shameless it makes me feel embarrassed.
The AU has endorsed Ethiopian actions:
Patrick Mazimhaka, the deputy chairman of the AU’s Commission, told the BBC the African Union would not criticise Ethiopia as it had “given us ample warning that it feels threatened by the UIC”.
He added: “It is up to every country to judge the measure of the threat to its own sovereignty.”
Mr Mazimhaka said the international community had a responsibility to support the transitional government.
The African Union would meet in two days to discuss the situation, he said.
I’ve a few things to say about this:
1. Advance warning of a threat does not make it any more real or justifyable, if anything that fact that you can feel threatened for a time without anything coming of it indicates that the threat is less urgent or existant.
2. It is not “up to every nation to measure the threat to its own sovereignty”, that essentially renounces the entire concept of justifiable action. It’s hard to see a country occupying parts of Somalia as having its sovereignty violated by that fact.
3. The two day delay seems pretty clearly an opportunity for Ethiopia to alter the status quo as much as possible before they withdraw or halt ostensibly in response to some AU decision. And no, I don’t think that is an excessibly cynical view.
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I was waiting for this war, watch, it have a capacity to suck sum Arab countries into the conflict due to their support for the UIC. Having had several high ranking officers defect to Eritrea 2 months ago due to ill treatment of Eritreans in Ethiopia, Ethiopia is really doing something stupid again now. Imagine if Eritrea and UIC go to war with Ethiopia directly on 2 fronts. Ethiopia may have a powerful army, but I doubt they can handle a war on 2 fronts. Ethiopia got Somalis and Eritrean living within Ethiopia. If they start rebelling, which most likely will happen if an all out war breaks out. The horn of Africa is going to be fucked for decades to come.
One almost wishes for the readjustment of the borders to bring an end to these wars, nationalism is a brutal business.
As I mentioned, that’s already begun, although when the Derg was defeated there were half a dozen or so and I only know of one that is currently active in this war……so far.
I haven’t heard about much fighting going on inside of Ethiopia. Ehhh… I hate the media. So fucking frustrating when you know that there a huge war is about to start and can’t get enough information about it.
Do you know of any good blog that is maybe covering this from inside of Ethiopia?
Jina, check this site out-
http://ethiopiawatch.blogspot.com/
If you check the archives this is hardly new. I think in fact this is Joel’s 2nd or 3rd entry about it. I just hope that blog gets updated soon for us to find out more about what’s going on and from an insider’s view.
I’ve been watching Al Jazeera International (the new English channel) and they’ve been trying to cover this. They aired this show about Kenya and on the bottom for the longest time they had breaking news about Ethiopia launching attacks against Somalia, and then ‘more to come.’ So I take it they’re finding their sources.
This is some of the worst news this week, it’s going to be horrible.
I can’t make my mind up to this yet, till the informations of different sources are so different – the first thing I read about was similar to
I don’t think it’s about borderline correction this times – it’s a struggle of influences – well & the fear about the extreme Jihad movement moving from country to country like a cancer spreading -
I really liked to get more informations – it seems that the whole mideast country by country is getting infected, going up in flames & a lot of experienced fireworkers should there be at work..
How to understand and destroy Al-Qaeda thinking
Western powers have upper hand if they understand logically and how Al-Qaeda operating within international borders. How they recruit among societies.
Al-Qaeda takes advantage among deprived societies within East Africa region, Mid East region and Indonesian region.
Western powers must act together and undertake marshal plan to develop above region throughout economical development. Economical development will be long term solution and very effective to destroy Al-Qaeda ideology.
Western powers must open up a scholarship programs in above regions in order to spread a democracy and western value; this will be extremely effectual utensil to conquer Al-Qaeda philosophy. Western powers must not underestimate Al-Qaeda policy and operating system.
Western powers must recognise Somalia transitional government and empowered them throughout economical developments. Western powers must help in Somalia and to make a Somalia example case, a Muslim country which has a good relationship with West in terms of trade, tourism, education and nation building process this will be a cornerstone of obliterate to Al-Qaeda theorist.
Considering the negligable al-Qaeda presence and it is hardly the logical place to start such an initiative, especially as most Muslim countries would be too disimilar to use the same methods on.
Western and Ethiopian intervention has been the problem here, it is inappropriate to allow the country to languish in chaos and decay but when an indigenous movement is on the verge of restoring the Somali state to invade and install a puppet government beholden to Somalia’s traditional enemies.
This kind of destabilization contributes to radicalism rather than taking it away.
As for a marshall plan type initiative, I think that Afghanistan is a more appropriate place to rebuild an economy and a democracy.
I’m not sure the imposition of western values will solve all the region’s problems if it succeeds, and it certainly would at least initially produce a violent backlash.