Iran, the Brits, the Sailors…
Well, here in Iran, we certainly know how to make a media splash. First there was the detention of the British sailors, now the nuclear issue. If you read our blog, View From Iran, you know that my husband and I are/were both opposed to Iran’s actions during the whole messy affair with the British soldiers.
What I find interesting, is how many people see this whole fiasco as a boon for Iran. I think the best way for me to sum up the different points of view is to respond to Hossein Derrakshan’s post-release post.:
There are some lessons we can all learn from this:
1. Islamic Republic of Iran, when genuinely engaged, is negotiable,
unlike what neo-conservatives try to make us believe.Yes, they can negotiate, but an agreement does not mean much of anything. “Signing a contract is the beginning of negotiations.”
2. Iran is a whole different country now than it was 28 years ago when they captured the American embassy
Agreed. I felt that the comparisons between this affair and the hostage crisis (at least for us Americans it was a crisis) at the start of the revolution were spurious. Commentators seemed to thinkthat holding the British sailors captive would somehow unite the nation behind the regime. That was just silly. Any longer, and the Iranians we know would have started getting nervous about retaliation. The Iranians we don’t know seem to think that the regime capitulated.
Overall, the whole affair of the 15 British sailors (great Sherlock Holmes title) was barely noticed here in Iran because most Iranians were on vacation for two weeks and so was their press. There were no newspapers during the Norooz (New Year) holidays. This was all very low key in Iran.
3. Iran’s establishment is more united than everyone thinks. Painting the Revolution Guard as a Mafia or a government inside a government is a strategic mistake.
My husband, Keivan, also thinks that the regime is more similar than dissimilar. But I would disagree with this point. I think this whole ploy was for internal consumption and that the IRG was sending a message to parts of the establishment that are looking for compromise and negotiation. There has been a lot of internal debate on the nuclear issue, for instance.
According to Nicholas Burns, The US’s Under Secretary for Political Affairs, the US had been getting signals that the regime wanted to talk.
The affair of the 15 forced the various factions to at least appear unified.
And the IRG is, in fact, dangerous. It is an elite military that is stronger than the will of the people. Parts of the IRG seem to run autonomously from the whole of it.
4. The moderate conservatives in Iran, represented by Ali Larijani, have the unconditional backing of Ali Khamenei.
Maybe I do not know enough about backstage machinations to comment. There is an interesting article on Newsweek’s website that does shed some light: Reign of the “Melted Ones,” How Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei keeps control of Iran.
5. Ali Larijani, who brokered the deal, is the real president of Iran and is the person in Iran for the world to talk to. That’s why Ahmadinjad was reading from a written statement.
Ahmadinejad was clearly subdued during this whole affair. He appeared reigned in and uncharacteristically quiet.
6. Islamic Republic, including its radical elements, is not a rouge and irrational regime.
It’s not?
7. Ahmadinejad has been allowed to announce the release to repair the image of Iran that’s hugely damaged by himself over his unnecessary anti-Israel comments.
8. Iran has won the PR game.
The PR game continues. I don’t think that Iran has won this one quite yet. This implies that the game is over. But recent developments make me wonder if Hoder is not, perhaps, correct, despite what I think and how I interpret the affair.
9. Iran is a winner in the recent standoff, as it ultimately was when the U.S. removed its most threatening neighbouring regimes in Iraq and Afghanistan
I think this was more of a lose-lose situation rather than a win-win.
10. Ahmadinejad is one heck of a street-smart politician.
Yeah, maybe, but apparently the Leader seems to think his street smarts do not translate into true smarts. Here is a quote from the Newsweek article:
“NEWSWEEK has learned that Khamenei stopped Ahmadinejad from taking part in a U.N. Security Council session last month because he felt that the president would be out of his depth in the meeting. “The Supreme Leader deemed that president would not be able to add anything to Iran’s argument if he took part in the Security Council session,” said a Khamenei associate.”
I feel that the whole media circus will backfire on Iran. It shows a government that is not ruled by law or reason, but by bluff and magisterial whims. Ahmadinejad handed out the freedom as if he were a king rather than the ruler of a modern nation.
Maybe people thought it was some kind of pr victory, but a true examination of it should prove otherwise. That said, the Brits don’t seem to be handling their own media circus any better. When the sailors start getting six figure sums from the media for a story that would be barely worth a blink if it had not happened in Iran, you’ve got to wonder.
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Great perspective, Esther. I have to admit that I, too, saw the whole thing as a weird media stunt on all sides. No urgency, no importance, just a whole lot of analyzing what the sailors were wearing in the videos and the British armed forces giving them permission to sell their stories. And frankly, Iran seemed not to know what to do with them until it was time to let them go and make a big fanfare out of that. I’m still not sure what the whole incident was REALLY about… I wonder if any of us will ever really know.