Empowering The Silent Majority With Conditional Aid To Egypt

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Since I last posted here, the U.S House of Representatives voted to conditionally hold back $200 million in military aid to Egypt, dependant on progress made by the Mubarak regime concerning democratic reforms and human rights abuses. This measure has been the subject of much debate for a while now, in light of Egypt’s rapidly deteriorating credibility on rights and democracy. The numerous arrests of political opponents, cyber-dissidents and successive failures to hold legitimate elections have caused some to challenge the real-politik view that funding autocratic regimes in the Middle East is in the interest of America and the world’s power structure.

However, that’s not what the Egyptian government will have you believe. Speaking to MENA, Egyptian Ambassador to Washington Nabil Fahmy said that “the aid which the United States gives to Egypt is not a gift but it is (based on) a U.S. assessment that it serves the U.S. interest… In other words, this aid is an investment for U.S. interests in the Middle East (link)”

An investment is right; Egypt has recieved over $60 billion in military and economic assistance over roughly 3 decades. I myself have benefited from USAID first hand, making use of educational resources at the AUC such as laptops and equipment donated from such aid progams (we were constantly reminded of this by the big red and blue stickers attached to everything). However one wonders if the recipient of this aid truly believes that what they are recieving is in the interest of the other, will the political status-quo ever change?

Thus, with this additional measure of accountablity in this years’ foreign appropriations bill we are seeing the reaction of a country that has for too long been praised as being a model of stability (which without progress becomes stagnation) and rewarded as such. Foreign Minister Aboul Gheit reacted angrily earlier this month to a remark by President Bush at the recent Prague conference, in which he called for the release of Ayman Nour. Ambassador Fahmy called the last 3 weeks “not pleasant days” in regards to relations with the U.S.

The fact of the matter is Egypt, and the regime ruling it is extremly dependant on U.S support, which they have maintained through the illusion of the Muslim Brotherhood as the main political opposition. Secular parties are banned from forming or even gathering, charged with fabricated accusations of crime and effectively marginalised, yet to much less media fanfare than news of Brotherhood members being arrested. This is not unintentional, and as democracy activist Saad Eddin Ibrahim said in a recent interview (asked about the Brotherhood being the largest opposition group link:

We could not organize rallies, we could not organize marches or demonstrations because of emergency laws. Emergency laws have been in effect since 1981, since the assassination of President [Anwar] Sadat. So for the last 26 years, these emergency laws have prevented secularists from going out and organizing and mobilizing.

On the other hand, the Muslim Brothers have the mosques, and that is an advantage that is without design probably by the regime, but it has played in their favor. Meanwhile, I do not like to exaggerate their constituency because despite the fact that they have freer space to move in, still their share in the last Egyptian parliamentary election was 20 percent out of the 20 percent [of registered voters who actually voted]. So, 77 percent of the registered voters did not like to vote for them, nor to vote for the regime. And that is a 77 percent that I consider to be the silent majority, the potential constituency for liberal-democratic parties whenever liberal-democratic parties are allowed full freedom to operate.

So if we are to view the stipulations tied to U.S foreign aid as the medium through which democratic reform can be pressured upon Egypt, then shouldn’t other stipulations include the empowerment of that silent majority? Or perhaps some money could be tied to decreasing the acceptance of anti-semetic language in society, or the empowerment of religious minorities who feel discriminated against. The point is these measures should be welcomed, and implemented, even to the chagrin of the Egyptian government.

In the years leading up to the next Presidential election in Egypt, it is the empowerment of the masses that will determine to what degree the next leader will be representative of his people, and to what degree the country will remain ‘stable’. The U.S has an opportunity now to discipline a regime which it has given political credibility and good standing in the international community, and perhaps genuinely turn it into the regional leader it already claims to be.

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