The Iranian/U.S. Agenda
July 13th, 2007
Allow me to propose my own theory about Iran. The theory is that Iran and the U.S. have the same interests in the Middle East.
What is the U.S. agenda in the Middle East? To start, if you dont think America has an outlined agenda in the Middle East none of the following will be relevant to you, just close the page and go to LGF or something.
In order for strong nations, especially world powers, to secure and maintain power they must intermediate internationally with respect to their national interest. Thats how it works and thats how any successful nation does it. Because of the U.S. demand for oil and the general global economy its in the best interest of the U.S. to secure pro-western governments in the Middle East and to challenge those who dont want to play nice and contribute, hence the conflict with Syria and formerly Libya and Saddams Iraq. The Middle East nations who do play nice do so because they depend on the U.S. for their survival and America is sure to remind them of that. For example Egypt, Jordan and Saudi Arabia all rely on the U.S. to fill their pockets, they know how to play the game. In the Middle East there is absolutely nothing to gain by challenging America, just play by the rules and you’ll benefit.
Iran is a unique nation in the region, unlike the Arab states they act solely in terms of their national interest, they desire being a world power, mainly why they pursue nuclear power among other things.. Iranians are infamously nationalistic and proud, exactly the reason they have a greater chance of prosperity then the Arabs. It’s imperitive to Iran that they support the right groups and the right nations, like the U.S. they need nations to feel dependent on them, Hezbollah, Syria, some Shia’a groups in Iraq and even some Sunni groups. These groups will only be funded and supplied until their utility is expired. It is not a matter of defending Shi’ites like half of humanity believes, I’ll give you proof.
From 1988 to 1994 a war was fought between Armenia and Azerbaijan. During the war Iran supplied their most advanced weapons to the Armenians, who are 99% Christian, to help them fight the Azeri’s who are mostly Shi’a Muslims. The strategy of helping defeat the Azeri’s was to not empower Azeri’s who make up 24% of the Iranian population (the 2nd largest in Iran).
Similar power struggles go on in Iraq. Many of the Iranian fighters in Iraq are there fighting Muqtada al Sadr’s Shi’a fighters who are staunchly anti-Iran and pro Arab unity. Iran’s interest is to stay in Iraq, fight both sides and prolong the battle, making the Iraqi government more reliant on Irans support.
Essentially Iran and the U.S. are fighting for the same piece of the pie, they both desire control of the Iraqi government and access to the oil. They are both fighting for who will influence the Arab nations and they are both battling both sides of the conflict in Iraq in order to tip the war in their favor.
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Links please.
lol i’ll get them for you, i’m searching for it right now.
Don’t forget that Iran supported the Hazara militia called Hezb-e-Wahdat to fight against the Taliban in the 90’s.
Danial, great point!
Drima, heres a link for you.
This article doesnt explain the whole story of why Iran supplied Armenia but it says very clearly that Armenia was supported by Iran during the war and that in the last few years American aid to Armenia was decreased and Aid to Azerbaijan was increased. Another clear example of the Iranian/American power struggle.
http://www.stratfor.com/products/premium/read_article.php?id=291603
this following article explains more but puts it as a matter of supporting Armenia as an Anti-american effort
http://www.jcpa.org/JCPA/Templates/ShowPage.asp?DBID=1&TMID=111&LNGID=1&FID=283&PID=0&IID=1617
Your theory is wrong! because your reasoning is based on some false assumptions! I don’t know where did you get these assumptions but if you research a little bit better then you would write based ground reasoning. by the way, I write down your faults in following:
1. National interest is a meaningless term when it comes to The Islamic Republic of Iran (IRI). IRI doesn’t have such definition in their policy and politic system towards Iranian people. The Islamic Republic of Iran (IRI) policy towards Iranian people has proved it long long time ago!
2. IRI do pursue nuclear power technology just because
external threats drive Iran’s perceived need for a nuclear deterrent to feel safe and secure from any governmental changes by western countries.
3. These other things which you didn’t name it! it can be IRI missle technology, terrorist groups training & supporting inside and ouside of Iran and you name it.
IRI do lots of things toward people inside of Iran e.g. detaining human activists, stundents, writers, abducting people, no freedom of speech and write, terrroizing and terrifying Iranian people, torture and killing Iranian poeple and so on!
There is no good thing that you can come up with. so there is no national interest!
4. How could come up with such reasoning?! how did you relate “being nationalistic and proud” to “a greater chance of prosperity”? There are lots of real factors which you should consider when you are writing about prosperity!
How on the earth Iran could be prosper when there is no room on any human activists in Iran? even for helping people in earth-quake incident?
how could Iranian could be prosper while eveybody leave Iran because of IRI policy toward people? how Iran could be prosper when there isn’t any support from most educated people?
5. what is that suppose to mean? right group? right nations?
Is Muqtada al Sadr’s group (al-Mahdi or The Mahdi Army) is a right group? which Iran supports it to implement chaos and run bloodsheds in Iraq?!
6. IRI supports some groups and nations as long as they could be some sort of help to IRI regime to hold power inside and outside of Iran? just don’t ask me why inside because if you ask this question then I would say go play soccer
(no offence but politics analysis can’t be your hobby)
7. That’s right! Also there are lots of examples here!
8. Wrong.
First of all, it’s not similar struggle. second, Iranians fighting for
Muqtada al Sadr’s (al-Mahdi or The Mahdi Army). not only Muqtada al Sadr’s is not against Irab but also they take care of each other. even Muqtada al Sadr’s was hiding in iran for almost 3 months and in Iraq Shi’as have not had about it!
9. Not really! If IRI was sure that The State won’t come after IRI after finishing business in Iraq, I guess by 99% IRI wouldn’t bother to make a chaos in Iraq. IRI wants to prolong the battle just because they don’t want The State would have a chance even to think about attacking Iran however IRI doesn’t like a Sunni government in Iraq either!
Unfortunately IRI has not got any other chance in the meantime. they have to keep The State busy in Middle-east and everywhere else!
Fariborz Shamshiri
Fariborz
You got your feathers ruffled and didnt really say a whole lot. I see a lot of personal opinion, a lot of knit picking but you failed to address a couple main points which discount your whole epic.
Let’s address why an “Islamic” Government, the most influential Shi’a centered Government in the world, would support a christian country to fight against a shi’a one? More importantly why would a country uninterested with national interests aid other nations in war? You said they aid nations and groups who can help them maintain power inside and outside Iran. Well obviously they intend on keeping their regime inside and outside Iran but you failed to see how maintaining national interests helps them maintain their control.
You conveiniently ignored the Armenia-Azeribaijan war. They could have supported Azeribijan in that war to gain the overwhelming support of the Azeri population in Iran and in effect aiding their power hold in Iran. Instead they supported Armenia in order to help weaken Azeribaijans involvement with Iran’s Azeri population. They also supported Armenia in order to make a deal with the Armenians for a gas pipeline. which if you would read the links above you would see. That sounds alot like national interest to me.
As far as Muqtada al Sadr its known that despite being Shi’a hes anti Iran for the purpose of Arab unity. While most Shi’a in Iraq fight along with Muqtada, the Iranian fighters are actually fighting against Muqtada. That might be a hard pill to swallow but its a reality. Its not that much of a secret either, Iraqs groups have had infighting for years now. Sunni vs. Shi’a, Sunni vs Al Qaeda sunni, Shi’a vs Pro Iran Sunni etc etc.
You also argued that Iran and the U.S. are not fighting for the same influence. If you read those above articles you will see that because of Irans involvement in Armenia that exists to this day, the U.S. has decreased Armenia foreign aid by 30 % and Increased that of Azerbaijan by the same amount. A clear example of how the U.S. and Iran are fighting for influence in even the smallest pockets of the world.
The rest of your points are mostly opinion that neither of us will ever get to the bottom of. Some of it is denile, some of it is simply a view of Iran from someone who has a primary focus on Irans Human rights issues and not the overall political landscape. I hope I’ve addressed your “concerns”.
Oh and chill with the exclamation marks.
Corrections in the 3rd to last paragraphy, last sentence, i meant to write. “Shi’a vs Pro Iran Shi’a etc etc”
D.B. Shobrawy
Honesty your artilce is full of contradictions about Iranian and just I questioned some parts of your article which were wrong to see what really you want to say? so I didn’t argue any parts of your article which were right.
Also I didn’t intend to write a new article about The Iranian/U.S. Agenda here in the comments. in addition what you saw is not a personal opinion, just with a few search about each part you can find out how much of these personal opinions are common sense between people who has knowledge about Iran.
Your article “Iranian/U.S. Agenda” is mainly based on similarity of war in Iraq and Armenia-Azeribaijan war which your comparison is tottally wrong.
I am sorry but you have no clue about Iranian tribes and how this country is fragile since 1979. So let me explain it. After dissolution of the USSR and regaining Republic of Azerbaijan’s independence in 1991 it was first established full diplomatic relations with Turkey, the United States, and IRI then Israel and so on. But the Republic of Azerbaijan relation with the United States and Israel was far better than their relation with IRI. it was a real threat to IRI. Not only because IRI was (and is) enemy of Israel and the United States also IRI had feared that Iranians try to have strong bonds with the Republic of Azerbaijan (actually with good ally of The States) which (in the best case scenario) it could accelerate changes in regime or even a new revolution against regime.
In the worst case scenario IRI have feared that Azeris in IRI try to ask for independence or to unite with the Republic of Azerbaijan.
which in any case it was not IRI acceptable scenario so they put all their efforts to weaken the Republic of Azerbaijan.
In the best case scenario which was the most possible and feasible scenario, IRI should strongly fight with it! it doesn’t seem a national interest, it’s a regime interest!
It’s good to know that Iranians have tendency towards Western countries/cultures and Israel and the Majority of Iranians they do like Americans and Israelis in spite of IRI’s enmities towards them! so if there was an opportunity for Iranians to be close to the United States even through the Republic of Azerbaijan, Iranians would embrace it.
About Muqtada al Sadr, well I don’t know where did you get your knowledge but the fact is even Muqtada al Sadr hid in IRI for almost 14 months. IRI is completely supports Muqtada al Sadr but in one case! Muqtada al Sadr was insisting for Wilayah which is IRI clergies specially Khamenie didn’t support the idea at all but as long as Muqtada al Sadr and other militans are making chaos in Iraq, IRI would love to support them.
FYI:
Muqtada al-Sadr on Aljazeera
“Ready to attack the Americans if they Attack Iran or Syria”
“In a Democratic Iraq, Kurds will not need Own Region”
Anti-American Cleric Muqtada Al-Sadr Reportedly Flees Iraq for Iran
In the meantime, my argument about fighting for the same influence is right!
IRI just tries to keep the States busy and not give them a chance to think about IRI. They are both battling both sides of the conflict in Iraq but not for the same interest! Also IRI support Armenia just because of reasons in above. If there was not a conflict between IRI and the States, IRI wouldn’t pity Armenia. e.g. before revolution, relatively Iran didn’t pity to countriesrs in middle-east that much.
I hope I’ve helped you to have better understanding of IRI agenda.
Also I suggest you to use The Islamic Republic of Iran (IRI) instead of Iranian or Iran when you want to address to IRI government because from 1979 it’s called IRI and the majority of Iranians still don’t believe that IRI government is their own government.
Fariborz Shamshiri
Mahdi Army is there to protect the Shi’a community from the al-Qaeda dogs.
Why are you silent on the al-Qaeda fanatics who are causing chaos and bloodshed. If you looked at the victims in Iraq, they are all majority Shi’a.
First of all, Mahdi Army’s existence is questionable for me while they are Iraq Military. Second, Mahdi Army is not there to protect anybody! but to form a power structure on the price of terrorism, chaos and bloodshed in Iraq and region.
Third, based on your assumption Mahdi Army are there just to protect Shias. it means they do care to people lives, right?
they were obviously unable to protect Shi’as so far. So as a group who should care (based on your assumption) to people lives, shouldn’t they ask for ceasefire? shouldn’t they ask just stop killing people and we leave the country? if really they care to people they should start peace instead being Army!
Actually from the day this Mahdy Army appeared all this terrorism and chaos started.
I do believe Mahdi Army and al-Qaeda they destroy everybody to reach to their own goal. These groups just don’t care to people lives!
I think all militants should hand over their guns to Iraqi Military and let Iraqis to build their country. I do wish peace for people there.
Fariborz Shamshiri
Not exactly true. It started when the US invaded Iraq under false pretenses.
Who has killed more? Mahdi Army or al-Qaeda in Iraq? Who drives trucks into crowded marketplaces and blow themselves up? Who destroyed the Al-Askariyah shrine? Who continues to walk into mosques and detonate themselves? Who suicide bomb funerals?
Yeah the Mahdi Army does round up innocent Sunnis and torture them with power drills, but it’s a reaction to the crap they have to endure from the Sunni insurgents who won’t let them live in peace.
What do you want the Shi’a to do? Bend over and let the Sunni insurgents attack them for being Shi’a? Give me a break.
And when they one day die and face judgment what will be the result of their actions in torturing innocents to death?