Fractionalizing Iraq- Is this a good move?
October 13th, 2007There is a movement and growing sentiment in Iraq and outside that a fractionalized Iraq is the best solution to stem and curtail the fighting. This would be dividing Iraq into three autonomous states- one for the Kurds in the north, one for the Sunna’a in the central region and one for the Shia’a in the south. The man who is spearheading this is an Iraqi cleric- Ammar al-Hakim, who is the head of the Supreme Islamic Council of Iraq. The difference between him and al-Sadr is that he is seeking cooperation between the USA and Iran and he is calling for unity of all Iraqis regardless of their ethnic and sect background.
One important thing he does stress is self rule but not breaking national unity. The minority Sunna’a Arabs in the central region have long felt that if such a system were put into motion, they would lose out, since the central region is mostly desert with little to no natural resources (I know, I’ve been there), while the Kurdish region in the north and the Shia’a region in the south contain most of Iraq’s oil reserves. That is the one fly in the ointment. Incidently, al-Hakim is gaining popularity within certain circles of the Washington Beltway especially with growing sentiment on the withdrawal of US forces. My feelings on this is I am all for it if the movement can stop the fighting, guarantees some sharing where three regions do walk away with fair concessions, makes available a climate where Iraqi refugees stuck in Syria and Jordan can be repatriated without fear of harm/persecution and helps foster good working relationships between Iran and the USA.
Here’s an article released a few hours ago.
What are your feelings? Is this a good move or not?
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What about an independent state for Assyrians?
Good point, but I’m thinking that to at first get the groups working together and to stop the fighting will be an accomplishment unto itself. The actual division, if this happens, will take some time and will need very strong mediators that all sides can trust. Bringing up the Assyrians, I have not heard of anything. What can you share? Remember, not everyone will be happy. That applies to almost everything.
Assyrians have been yearning for their own state, like the Kurds, for decades.
Danial, how many Assyrian/Chaldean still reside in Iraq? Noted that most Assyrians left at the turn of the 19th century and in greater numbers at the fall of the Ottoman Empire with a greater population of Assyrian/Chaldean 2nd and 3rd generation in the USA. I am not saying it is not an issue, but creating an Assyrian state would probably be a tough one.
I think breaking up Iraq into ‘autonomous states’ would be a huge mistake with terrible consequences. One only needs to look at the tragedy of the India-Pakistan partition to get an idea of the devastation. How many Iraqi’s would have to be uprooted in their move to their ‘allocated state’?
And as with India, there will be numerous other ‘groups’ wanting their autonomy. Ghandi was assassinated for these reasons, to stop him from giving further ‘groups’ their own state and causing further chaos. And Danial’s comment about the Assyrians clearly highlights this.
Why do we constantly feel the need to further divide and segragate? It will only result in more hate and violence. More than fifty years later, India and Pakistan still dont have a positive relationship. Why should a divided Iraq?
Who is “we”? I am merely stating what is happening in Iraq amongst the Iraqis and what a segment of their feelings are. I am not dreaming it up, but if it does lead to cease-fire and conflict resolution, then we are onto something. Political borders have expanded and contracted in this part of the world for centuries. This is nothing new. If you propose that Iraq not be allowed to fractionalize, then what is your alternate proposal? How do you intend to make the alternate a more viable solution?
India and Pakistan… Do you think Kashmir is the reason for the constant tension? If we want to go back even further into time, then why not give Pakistan and northern India and Afghanistan to Iran? Besides, it was all part of the Persian Empire long ago. Think about it. Does that make sense? Ok… Let’s go further. If Iraq splits up, then we may as well put effort into freeing Tibet from China.
Bottom line- not everybody is going to be happy, but we need not try to tell the Iraqi people how to run their own affairs or what they desire to do within their borders. If you caught what was being said, they are talking about three autonomous states united under Iraq, like the USA and other nations with states/prefectures.
I don’t know where you’re getting your info on this growing sentiment outside of Kurdistan. Iraqis are overwhelmingly opposed to the federalism plan, outside of SCIRI, and even they reversed their position after Congress endorsed Biden’s plan and manage to piss everyone off. Most sentiments I’ve read are that it would exacerbate the current bloodshed significantly.
Also I’ve never even heard of Assyrian separatist groups in Iraq, care to provide a link?
I’m getting my info from Associated Press as it comes off, plus with my work I did previously in Iraq. Where are you getting your info? Care to share? Also, who cares what Joe Biden and the American Congress has to say about Iraq? Give the Iraqis control of their own destiny and let’s just support them on it instead of fucking up the controls with weak people.
By ‘We’ I was simply speaking of Human Beings, in light of my current sadness towards our world due to the actions of human beings. I just think we are made for better things that hatred, war and segregation.
I did not think that you had made it up, I did actually go onto the article you posted. I also dont think it would lead to a cease fire, not a real permanent one anyway. There would also be the constant threat to the autonomous Kurds in the North from Turkey, would that be something we would want to encourage?
And ofcourse, many things have happened throughout history, does that mean we should continue to do allow all of those things to continue to occur?
I do not have a solution, I however am able to see the reverberations of certain actions, and I just dont think those would be positive. I would want to be able to see a united free Iraq, with a government that represented all the people, with a revolutionary leader that was part of the people. And I do believe people, given the opportunity, would be far more successful without external influences and without further seperation. I do not want to see America’s version of a ‘New Middle East’.
Do you really think it would be like states in the USA? Is each state then dependent on the enthic grouping of a people? And then, what of the Sunni Iraqis, who dominate central Iraq, which is all but desert, with little to no natural resources?
As for Kashmir, of course it is a main sore point,it is part of the same problem, but it is also not the only one. And yes, I do think we should support a free Tibet!
i get my info from the press and iraqis too and from what i’ve heard was overwhelming rejection. apparently a lot of people changed their minds when the idea was endorsed by congress, so apparently somebody cares.
random links:
http://www.juancole.com/2007/10/iraq-sermons-call-for-sunni-shiite.html
http://www.juancole.com/2007/10/iraqi-television-responds-to-senate.html
http://www.globalvoicesonline.org/2007/10/10/iraq-biden-backfires/
analyst warning against partition:
http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5hc6EU6GAy30dvwYeQPiumpM3uurwD8S6SSF80
marc lynch’s analysis:
http://abuaardvark.typepad.com/abuaardvark/2007/09/a-job-well-done.html
also seriously in the past five years of reading about iraq i have never come across assyrians who want a separate state. assyrians/chaldeans made up about 2-3% of the population in 2003, they were scattered in communities in baghdad, mosul, basrah, and a few villages around the north and since then their numbers in iraq have seriously diminished. for the most part they just seem to want the protection they had under the old regime, if they even can stay in iraq at all.
It’s a lot more complex than Kashmir. I assure you of that. Add the breakup of East and West Pakistan to the mess as well. What happened during the ‘71 war in Bangladesh makes the Serbs look like benevolent conquerers.
Fractionalizing Iraq- Is this a good move?
Does it matter is it’s a good move for Iraq? It’s probably the least humiliating move for the US, and therefore…
Tamara,
Vision? There was actually a vision? I must have missed the memo…
gary
(A US citizen just counting the days, minutes & seconds until the next election)
MyTwoCents,
Oh, I think we’re way past that point.
gary
If the Iraqi people want to move towards autonomy with three regions that are self governing but united under the national banner of 1 Iraq, then let them. If Mr. al-Hakim is sincere uniting all Iraqi peoples to work together and truly seeks the cooperation of Iran and the USA to help lay down the foundation, then this is a good thing. The Iraqi refugees, as long as they are guaranteed safety and non-persecution after being repatriated back could be the key role models on how Iraqi people CAN peacefully coexist and work together. I don’t see them all of the sudden reverting back to old sectarian violence if they’ve had a taste of peaceful coexistence (outside Iraq).
Attack/invasion of Northern Iraq by the Turks would be an attack on all the Iraqi people. A united Iraq would fight against the Turkish. Mr. al-Hakim is smart. Aligning with both Iran and the USA would add protection. Who knows, Mr. al-Hakim may be the peaceful mediator between Iran and the USA which could lead to further defusing of tensions between the two nations. At this point, I don’t care who it is or where they are from if they can get these two nations to drop the accusations and hostilities and work together in friendship.
I have no faith in the current Baghdad government. The different ministries I dealt with are just corrupt and self-serving and do wear different faces, depending on if it is in their favor. I don’t trust them enough to even turn my back on them. The Ministry of Oil, aka The Southern Oil Company, makes approximately $1 million a day from the offshore oil terminals “A” and “B”. These are cash transactions, so it is hard to keep track of. It was designed this way purposely by the Ministry. That money has not gone to anybody but the coffers and the pockets of the Baghdad government and the self-serving officials. All the while, the sectarian violence rages and none of that money is being used to fund rebuilding projects or to repair basic services like electricity, running water, sewage treatment or in micro-loans to families and local business. At the same time, this Baghdad regime is looking for handouts from other nations and is depending on others to solve those problems. Yes, the USA is just as guilty for letting this happen, and is guilty for trusting the various ministers who have shown one face and then in the background were attending to their own personal agendas.
So, if Ammar al-Hakim can effect change in a positive direction, he has my vote. A dove of peace is a welcome creature, regardless of where it is from
Gary,
Here is a link discussing the idea of a ‘New Middle East’. It is up to the reader to decide how seriously they wish to take it.
Dawoud,
I support any decision that is representative of at least the majority of the Iraqi people, not the people currently in power, in the farce that is the current Iraqi government. And as far as Nadia’s comments and links show, this would not be a decision supported by a majority.
If this process would really be as sweet as is made out, then wonderful, but I really think there would be terrible consequences that are not being considered or are rather being ignored. And that would be tragic.
Tamara,
I was just being sarcastic. I realize they technically had a plan…I was just voicing my frustration with it all. It’s hard for me to tell where incincerity leaves off and simple stupidity begins. I’m not much of a believer in conspiracy, so I tend to think it was mostly stupidity. He is after all “the decider”.
gary
hahaha… I feel your fustration.
I’m not much of a believer in conspiracy either. The problem is the labelling of a ‘theory’ or even ‘fact’ sometimes as a ‘conspiracy’ automatically delagitimizes it, leaving us clueless about where the truth ends and the conspiracy begins.
Tamara, I am with you on this. The people who are in the seats of power are by far not qualified to run anything. They all sit in the green zone, funnel money out of Iraq into their own accounts and businesses and that’s just about it. I do not believe the world is cut and dry, and that any plan, choose one, always leaves someone short-changed. The best we can hope for is one that addresses many of the problems and leaves concessions open to address those items that could not be addressed initially. I do not condone the vision of the New Middle East. It’s written by people who have no idea what it is like to live here, work here, suffer through the day, laugh thorugh the day, all of the nuances and the business at hand that goes with being Iraqi, Saudi, Iranian, Jordanian, Bahraini, Qatari and so on and so forth. I believe that the Iraqi people must be given the chance to manifest their own destiny, and if the USA and Iran can agree to work together as guides, but not the rule makers, that is even better.
I will also add to please catch CNN’s “Late Edition” today to listen to Senator Lindsey Graham R-SC and to former National Security Advisor Zbigniew Brzezinski (Carter Administration) current . Both people give a different point of view. I am more inclined to side with Mr. Brzezinski, who is calling the American forces in Iraq a “colonial” occupation force. Iraqis by far resent an occupying force. When the USA says it is not an occupying force, it’s hard to support that when we have build up in physical infrastructure throughout Iraq and in the Green Zone.
Here’s an article that published Mr. Brzezinski’s message to the Senate Foreign Relations Committee back on 01 February 2007. I think you will find it addresses many things.
Check this out:
If it doesn’t show up, then this is the site url- http://www.thewashingtonnote.com/archives/001916.php