Online Social Networking: The Strength of Weak Ties

[This is a guest post for Mideast Youth by Matthew Fraser & Soumitra Dutta.]

Online social networking is an explosive global phenomenon. Sites like MySpace, Facebook, hi5, Orkut and Friendster now boast hundreds of millions of members worldwide. The Web 2.0 revolution has reached a social tipping point – and is now being enthusiastically embraced by youth in the Middle East.

Motivations for joining social networking sites are varied and complex. At risk of oversimplifying, we can classify motivations into two broad categories: professional and social. Professionals who join sites like LinkedIn are primarily motivated by rational calculations related to their career interests. Most teenagers who collect “friends” on MySpace, on the other hand, are not looking to improve their career prospects. Their social interaction is motivated primarily by a non-rational instinct to forge social bonds based on common values, beliefs, passions and so forth. In some countries where governments constrain free political expression, sites like Facebook have become “virtual” civil societies where dialogue and debate flourishes in horizontal social networks. In sum, online social networking can be used to build social capital in many forms.

Most of us like to feel connected to others through close-knit ties. Yet ironically, we frequently depend on people with whom we maintain only “weak” ties – especially when we are looking for a job. The strength-of-weak-ties theory was famously elaborated by American sociologist Mark Granovetter. He defined “weak ties” as social relationships characterized by infrequent contact, an absence of emotional closeness, and no history of reciprocal favours. It might be said that weak-tie contacts are people in your “extended network”.

Weak-tie connections much more often than we think. Most intelligent job-seekers don’t turn to close friends or family for jobs, unless they are expecting to benefit from the advantages of cronyism or nepotism. Most turn to their extended network. And most business networks are based on relatively weak-tie associations.

The strength of weak ties explains the sudden membership surge on professional social networking sites at a time when the world is in the grips of a profound economic crisis. Paradoxically, the bad economic news has been good news for online social networking sites like LinkedIn, Plaxo, Ning and Facebook. These sites, and many others, are seeing their membership ranks soar as people worry about their financial security and career situation. The job jitters are motivating millions of people to plug into online social networks to network and boost their social capital. LinkedIn, for example, has seen its membership soar in recent months, reaching 30 million worldwide. A LinkedIn survey has revealed that 42% of the network’s members feel their job security has been impacted by the economic crisis, while 13% say it’s too soon to tell. In other words, more than half of LinkedIn’s worldwide membership is anxious about their future.

But what about the world’s youth? Young people who have still not entered the workforce and spend time on sites like MySpace and Facebook and hi5 for mainly social reasons. In our book, Throwing Sheep in the Boardroom, we argue that the Web 2.0 revolution is having a profound impact in three areas: identity, status, and power. The online revolution is generational. Members of “Generation V” – young people who grew up with the Internet — feel completely at ease in the online world and are redefining the nature of social interaction. Young people in the Middle East are a major part of this Gen V trend. Consider that roughly on third of the population in the Middle East is teenagers — between 15 and 20 years old. Youths are transforming the dynamics of markets thanks to their massive purchasing power. And as they enter the workforce and engage in political life, they will transform the dynamics of organizational behaviour and political institutions.

For senior managers in business and government, it’s important to understand the fundamental dynamics driving the Web 2.0 revolution. Young people on social networking sites rate, rank and review everything – from songs and movies to their teachers. They will rate and review their bosses and political leaders too. This may be challenging in certain countries, including the Middle East, where governments – including Syria and the United Arab Emirates — have been hostile towards online social networking, and have even shut down sites like Facebook. One Facebook group called “Say No to Blocking Facebook in the UAE” counts more than 5,500 members.

Another challenge is commercial. As consumers, young people don’t manifest the same degree of customer loyalty as previous generations, because they make buying decisions based on “social” references from their online networks. A survey by Booz Allen Hamilton found that roughly 50% of Web 2.0 users worldwide make buying decisions based on input from online friends. Now consider this: the same survey found that this figure is much higher in the Middle East – nearly 85%. Among the Middle East countries surveyed were Egypt, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia. The survey also found that many online social networkers make buying decisions based on recommendations from complete strangers online – 40% worldwide and 34% in the Middle East. This is frequently called the “wisdom of crowds”. A diverse group of complete strangers can frequently furnish better advice than one or two intimate friends.

Beyond the Middle East, social networking sites have exploded in Asia, where the Friendster site is popular throughout the region. Another social networking site, Orkut — owned by Google — is hugely popular in India as well as Brazil. In China, where there are more than 200 million Internet users, 51.com site has been logging more than 160,000 new members per day. The unique characteristic about Chinese online social networking is its heavy emphasis on more traditional, information-based Bulletin Board Systems, which feature chat forums for so-called Chinese “netizens”. In Japan, the most popular site, Mixi, counts some 15 million users. Unlike Western social networking sites, Japanese online social networkers tend to insist on total anonymity to protect their privacy. Even on matchmaking sites in Japan, many members refuse to post their photos. Online social networking in Japan remains a uniquely Japanese cultural experience.

South Korea is a world leader in Web 2.0 social networking, especially through virtual Cyworld. Launched in 1999 by a subsidiary of SK Telecom, Cyworld is Second Life, MySpace, YouTube, Flickr, Habbo Hotel, Amazon, eBay, and iTunes all rolled into one. Nearly half of South Korea’s entire population of roughly 50 million people are Cyworld users. Some 30,000 corporations have a business presence on the site. In Korean culture, however, online social network tends to reinforce existing relationships, as opposed to network-building with new contacts.

In Western countries, three popular sites (MySpace, Facebook, Bebo) now have a combined membership close to 300 million – or roughly the population of the United States. In a context of economic downturn, there is now a possibility that sites like Facebook will be invaded by professional networkers seeking to promote themselves in the job market. It’s easy to see how a tension between professional and social motivations could create conflict on Facebook.

And yet Facebook is already cluttered with self-promoters and marketing entrepreneurs. Can these people really be considered “friends”? And just how many Facebook “friends” can we reasonably have anyway?

Anthropologists tell us that it’s impossible to maintain stable social relationships with more than 150 people. This is widely known as “Dunbar’s Number“, named after British anthropologist Robin Dunbar, who argued that the necessary ritual of “social grooming” breaks down in groups whose membership exceeds roughly 150. If we apply Dunbar’s figure to all social networking sites, any “friend” list that exceeds 150 is not credible — and pushes social networking into the zone rational calculation. Maintaining a professional network of more than 150 connections on LinkedIn might be plausible, but it would appear to be humanly impossible to maintain social relations with more than 150 different people. And yet many Facebook profiles feature “friend” lists that not only surpass that figure, but double, triple, and quadruple it. Some Facebook “friend” lists count in the thousands. Which leads to the question: is the virtual world exempt from basic laws of socio-anthropology?

While we ponder that question, it’s a safe bet that the economic downturn will boost sign-ups for sites like LinkedIn and Facebook. And that this membership drive will further blur the line between rational instincts to connect socially with like-minded people and rational calculations to build social networks for self-interested reasons. One thing is certain, online social networking sites will likely continue to enjoy soaring growth – especially in regions like the Middle East with its large youth population.

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Matthew Fraser is a Senior Research Fellow and Soumitra Dutta is Roland Berger Chaired Professor of Business and Technology at INSEAD. Their book, Throwing Sheep in the Boardroom: How Online Social Networking Will Change Your Life, Work and World, is published by Wiley.