Has the Supreme Leader Ever Been Challenged? part 2

… continuation from Part 1

In the June Presidential elections in Iran we saw ex-president Rafsanjani maneuver the political scene carefully. At first there were rumors of him deciding to run against Ahmadinejad for the second time. Rafsanjani is not traditionally a Reformist. Nor are Pragmatist policies close to the Reformist Camp-especially pre June 2009. However, we saw Rafsanjani indirectly endorsing the reformist camp. Any support he may have had for Mousavi or Karrubi was vague prior to election day, however with the outbreak of protest after the “Velvet Coup,” a series of events merit our attention.

The arrest of Rafsanjani family members in the post-election turmoil was an extremely unpredictable surprise. To put it in perspective for those who may not know the history of Rafsanjani and Iran, arresting his daughter or any restriction on the clan had this going through people’s heads, “Why would the Islamic Republic’s regime punish one of the wealthiest and most heavily vested members of it’s own system? How is it even possible that Rafsanjani, who was a close ally of Khomeini, the leader of the Revolution, be inconvenienced in any way by this regime itself?”

Rafsanjani who is one of the most prominent State politicians in Iran, made an extremely critical speech on July 17th at the Tehran Friday prayers, shortly after the elections. This Friday prayer saw a mass of protesters like other post-election Friday prayers. Some Green Wave protesters were not allowed to enter the area and pray.

Rafsanjani was the residing cleric at this prayer. Regardless of the content of his speech–which did include sensitive attacks and criticism of the Supreme Leadership & Ahmadinejad, the following simple point speak to the leverage Rafsanjani has:

-) For what was perhaps the first time in the history of Islamic Republic, the sermon was not broadcast live on national television.

-)Why was it not broadcaster live? Is it not that the Firday prayers have historically been THE public forum, and THE podium for any socio-political movement, mobilization and activism? The only rationalization for why these prayers were not aired live, is that there were doubts within the government agencies and IRIB as to the content of Rafsanjani’s speech and his allegiance to the ideals of the revolution. This is extremely ironic given that Rafsanjani has historically been one of the IR’s founding fathers.
That Friday’s sermon was broadcast–audio only–later in the evening.

This is one of the most compelling cases in support of Rafsanjani’s leverage against the Supreme Leadership and the government. Be it rooted in age-old rivalry against Khameneie, or in financial corruption, we must recognize this new direction as an influential cause for some effects. Rafsanjani has come out in recent months to publicly attack his fellow teammates and the highest official of a regime he helped found and benefits from. In analyzing the 2009 June Elections as well as the Islamic Republic state infrastructure–or its possible implosion, we must keep deviations by founding fathers like Rafsanjani at the forefront of our analyses and speculation.

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