The fear is increasing ahead of elections in Iraq next month which could result in political vacuum and chaos, as many analysts fear. A major Sunni group boycotted the election last week, to return after few days to enter again after preventing their candidates from running.

Five years have passed since Iraqis last time Iraq chose a new National Assembly. Previous elections ended with a deep rift, months of government negotiations and a prime minister from a party with 0.2% of the vote in his faovr.

Ibrahim al-Jaafari did not spend much time as prime minister, as a party colleague Nuri al-Maliki took over all the years after. Since then, Maliki ruled the country.

7th of March will see elections for a new national assembly in Iraq, where sectarian violence has decreased significantly since the last election and U.S. forces are now on the way out.

Although Maliki has clear ambitions for re-election, and last year’s local elections in this respect was encouraging for him, has an increasing number of supporters turned their backs on him.

Iraq’s Supreme Islamic Council (ISCI) and Moqtada al-Sadr Shi’ite movement have both left the former government coalition and formed the National Iraqi Alliance (NIA).

Parts of Maliki’s Dawa party has turned up with the powerful Shi’ite groups, and so have the Iraqi reform movement (NRT).

The only agree to run together to prevent Shi’ite voices from splitting, but still think that Maliki must go. It can be a recipe for election victory, but is not a good recipe for government negotiations.

Nuri al-Maliki set himself for election at the head of law state Coalition, which did well in local elections in January 2009, primarily in Baghdad and Basra. When the situation was relatively calm, but in recent months, a number of powerful bombs demonstrated the strong differences that hides beneath the surface.

Maliki’s sudden witch hunt on the secular Shi’ite politicians and former members of Saddam Hussein’s Sunni-dominated Baath party has also attracted reactions both in Iraq and internationally.

A government-appointed commission has banned nearly 500 politicians ahead of elections, and only 26 of these have since been converted into the decision.

Analysts accuse Maliki for wanting to whip up the secular differences to prevent corruption, lack of security and government inadequacy becomes issue in election campaign.

U.S. military commander in Iraq, General Raymond Odierno, recently accused the commission leaders to run Iran’s errand, and claimed to sit on the evidence of the close ties to the regime in Tehran.

A Sunni Muslim group that they will boycott the election. A party spokesman says the decision is a result of Iran’s influence in the election process.

The national front for dialogue is led by Saleh al-mutlaka, a sitting member of parliament who has been barred from the election, they return after they saw they had better chance to run than not to become part of any future deals.

The front has joined the Iraqiya, a secular block led by former Prime Minister Iyad Allawi.

Kurds in northern Iraq are eagerly forward to the election, knowing that the chances of a Kurdish state will increase as the divisions in the south.

The ownership of oil fields around Kirkuk is still controversial, as are the contracts that the Kurdish self-rule government on its own has signed with foreign oil companies.

If Iraq really survive this extremely difficult year, I am extremely optimistic about the future. But there is a real risk to the contrary, that things will unravel completely. People feel hopeless and they want change but to whom, every party is using money in large amounts crushing young and small candidates, also no one know if at last minute who will show the faith card and ask people to vote for them or go to hell.

Future holds either hope or fear, what will happen?

March 7th will tell.