Leadership gambit points up deepening rift in Hamas
Jerusalem – The Arab Spring and its aftermath are shaking even the Palestinian Islamic fundamentalist movement Hamas, and there are now indications it may soon change its leader.
Hamas, in an official statement, confirmed over the weekend that long-time leader Khaled Meshaal has informed the movement he does not intend to run again for political bureau chief when elections are held in the 55-member shura (consultative) council during the coming months.
But tellingly, Hamas also said the council may not accept Mr. Meshaal’s stepping down, leaving the door open for him to continue in the post he has held since 1996. Since 2004, due to Israel’s assassination of Hamas spiritual leader Ahmed Yassin and his successor Abdel-Aziz Rantissi, Mr. Meshaal has been the overall leader of the organization.
The Damascus-based Mr. Meshaal’s threat to stand down stems from a deepening split in Hamas where his leadership, including his efforts to steer the group into a reconciliation with the rival Fatah movement, and other recent signs of relative pragmatism, are being challenged by the increasingly powerful Gaza Hamas leadership, embodied in Prime Minister Ismail Haniya and Hamas founder Mahmoud Zahar.
Saying he does not want to run again may be a recognition by Mr. Meshaal he would not get elected or it may be a ploy to attempt to rally support behind him.
”He wants to know if the Hamas movement wants him to continue,” says Talal Awkal, a Gaza-based columnist for al-Ayyam daily newspaper. In Mr. Awkal’s view, Mr. Meshaal is also keenly aware that in the aftermath of last year’s Arab Spring, which saw the toppling of long-standing dictators in Tunisia and Egypt, he cannot be seen to be clinging to his leadership position indefinitely and he must at least appear ready to step down. ”He has been continuing in his position a long while, at the same time that people everywhere in the Arab world are rising up against those leaders holding onto their authority for a long time.” Mr. Awkal said.
In the event of Mr. Meshaal’s not running, the leading candidates to replace him would be his deputy, Musa Abu Marzouk, Mr. Haniya or Mr. Zahar. Mr. Abu Marzouk would be expected to continue Mr. Meshaal’s efforts to reconcile with Fatah, while the Gaza based leaders could overturn the policy. All of the successors are expected to continue Hamas’s refusal to recognize Israel while perhaps voicing willingness for a conditional truce with it.
The relative strength of the Gaza leadership has increased in recent years, starting with Hamas’s armed takeover of Gaza from Fatah in 2007. With its own de facto government in place there that levies taxes and customs and garners revenues from tunnels through which goods are brought from Egypt, the Hamas leadership in Gaza is no longer dependent on Iranian money channeled through Damascus. Meanwhile, the unrest in Syria and President Bashar Assad’s brutal suppression of it has severely weakened its utility to Meshaal as an ally and made Damascus an unsafe base from which much of the Hamas leadership has relocated. Mr. Meshaal desperately needs another haven.
A reconciliation with the leader of Fatah, Mahmoud Abbas could bring his leadership back to the fore and help him achieve another base, possibly in Egypt, a strong backer of Fatah-Hamas unity. But much of the Gaza leadership is opposed to consummating a unity deal with Fatah. ”They don’t want to give up power or have a partner in the control of Gaza,” says Wadie Abu Nassar, head of the Haifa-based International Center for Consultations. Moreover, Gaza Hamas leaders harbor hopes that Mr. Abbas’s rule in the West Bank will collapse and they see no reason in propping up their rival.
Mr. Meshaal, survivor of a 1999 assassination attempt by the Mossad, has also touched off heated opposition from the Gazans through his stress in recent months that the struggle with Israel should be channeled into mass protests in the style of Tunisia and Egypt. Although Mr. Meshaal has not renounced violence, the Gazans see this stress as a betrayal of their venerated ”armed resistance” against Israel.
Inside Fatah, meanwhile, there are concerns that a new Hamas leader would be a negative development. ”Meshaal had a significant role in pursuing reconciliation,” Fatah leader Amin Makboul told the Associated Press. ”We hope his successor takes the same path particularly since there are some forces in Gaza who are not interested in reconciliation.”
